relationship b/n gold crude and USD

1. If the US dollar falls, Gold will remain the same price for the rest of the world. But, for the U.S., we will end up paying more for the same amount of gold

2. If the US dollar falls, Oil prices will rise for the U.S., but oddly, it will fall for other countries. This is because crude oil is primarily traded in U.S. dollars.

3. Since oil is used in the process of excavating and refining the gold, if oil prices go up, so does gold prices.

• 5 years ago

Unemployment claims affect..

Will the US Unemployment Claims Lead to Losses for Crude Oil?

July 19th, 2012 Posted in Analyst Picks 

At FOREXYARD, we believe in keeping our clients prepared for potentially significant news events. As such, traders will want to carefully monitor the US Unemployment Claims figure, scheduled to be released today, at 12:30 GMT. The unemployment indicator tends to have a broad impact throughout the marketplace. As can be seen in the chart below, the price of crude oil tumbled following the release of the June 21st figure.

Don’t miss out on another opportunity to capitalize on market volatility!

Today’s figure is forecasted to come in at 370K, which if true, would represent an increase in US unemployment from last week. Should the indicator come in as forecasted, investors may take the news as a sign that the US economy is weakening, which could result in the price of oil falling during the afternoon session. This is an excellent opportunity for forex traders to take advantage of potentially significant news, so don’t miss out!

Unemployment claims and gold prices

KATHMANDU: A successful investor has to be updated about news and announcements around the world. The US economic indicators are prime factors that affect commodity prices. The value of gold has historically moved inversely with the value of the dollars as an alternative investment. Hence, reports from USA provide a valuable analysis through which an investor can determine the future trend of gold. It is difficult to comprehend which types of reports are important in this regard. Yet, there are few reports whose significance cannot be doubted. A high impact report has always been the US Unemployment Claims which is released every Thursday. This weekly report tracks new filings for unemployment insurance benefits that exhibit the true scenario of the labour market which directly affects the value of the dollar and consequently the prices of gold. A steady increase in the initial claims from a languishing domestic economy will turn foreign investors away from the US securities and thereby weaken the dollar and strengthen gold. A helpful catalyst in this analysis is the US Dollar Index (USDX), which measures the performance of the dollars in comparison to the basket of six currencies namely, euro, Japanese yen, pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. The USDX will normally strengthen when unemployment claims drops and vice versa. There is a positive relationship between value of gold and unemployment claims. On March 3, when un-employment claims fell dramatically by 20,000 to a figure of 368,000, the USDX improved to 76.86, which in turn led to gold prices plunging to a low of Rs 34,118.37. This meant that the labour situation was improving, which indicated overall optimism in the economy. When un-employment claims rose to 397,000; the USDX fell to 76.63 which in turn led to the increment of gold prices to a high of Rs 34,643.75. This meant that the labour situation was worsening, which indicated a pessimistic outlook on the economy. Therefore, any investor wanting to invest in gold should look at the weekly unemployment claims report and trade accordingly.

DON'T USE CHARTS

It is a very old thing, this of noting the behavior of a stock and studying its past performances. When I
first came to New York there was a broker's office where a Frenchman used to talk about his chart. At
first I thought he was a sort of pet freak kept by the firm because they were good-natured. Then I learned
that he was a persuasive and most impressive talker. He said that the only thing that didn't lie because it
simply couldn't was mathematics. By means of his curves he could forecast market movements. Also he
could analyse them, and tell, for instance, why Keene did the right thing in his famous Atchison preferred
bull manipulation, and later why he went wrong in his Southern Pacific pool. At various times one or
another of the professional traders tried the Frenchman's system—and then went back to their old
unscientific methods of making a living. Their hit-or-miss system was cheaper, they said. I heard that the
Frenchman said Keene admitted that the chart was 100 per cent right but claimed that the method was too
slow for practical use in an active market.
Then there was one office where a chart of the daily movement of prices was kept. It showed at a glance
just what each stock had done for months. By comparing individual curves with the general market curve
and keeping in mind certain rules the customers could tell whether the stock on which they got an
unscientific tip to buy was fairly entitled to a rise. They used the chart as a sort of complementary tipster.
To-day there are scores of commission houses where you find trading charts. They come ready-made
from the offices of statistical experts and include not only stocks but commodities.
"I should say that a chart helps those who can read it or rather who can assimilate what they read. The
average chart reader, however, is apt to become obsessed with the notion that the dips and peaks and
primary and secondary movements are all there is to stock speculation. If he pushes his confidence to its
logical limit he is bound to go broke. There is an extremely able man, a former partner of a well-known
Stock Exchange house, who is really a trained mathematician. He is a graduate of a famous technical
school. He devised charts based upon a very careful and minute study of the behaviour of prices in many
markets—stocks, bonds, grain, cotton, money, and so on. He went back years and years and traced the
correlations and seasonal movements—oh, everything. He used his charts in his stock trading for years.
What he really did was to take advantage of some highly intelligent averaging. They tell me he won
regularly—until the World War knocked all precedents into a cocked hat. I heard that he and his large
following lost millions before they desisted. But not even a world war can keep the stock market from
being a bull market when conditions are bullish, or a bear market when conditions are bearish. And all a
man needs to know to make money is to appraise conditions.

cHANGE OF SCOPE..

regularly keep trading in silver.. ( best for scalping ).. i feel somehow comfortable only with silver..

Regularly wednesday 8 and thrusday 8 devoted for crude and natural gas ofcourse full throttle..

Then i need to study the 6pm movment on silver on thursday...
Then daily 1pm strategy.. Then 5 pm strategy Then 7.30 pm strategy accordinly..
Watch all historical charts till date in kitco day wise ( monday/tuesday etc.)

stocks i have a grip which to buy and which not to..

but in commodities the challenge remains.. on what to do..

on wednesday - Trade in crude..
On Thursday - Trade in Natural gas full throttle..

remaining days.. Goldmini, silvermicro, goldpetal, \\

DON'T  WATCH THE GRAPH.. U WILL END UP LOSING..
JESSE LIVERMORE NEVER WATCHED THE GRAPH...

“A great many traders keep charts or records of averages. They chase them around, up and down, and there is no question that these charts or averages do point out a definite trend at times. Personally, charts have never appealed to me. I think they are altogether too confusing. Nevertheless, I am just as much of a fanatic in keeping records as other people are in maintaining charts. They may be right, and I may be wrong.”

The patterns he sought to identify were patterns in the prices. Modern traders - and indeed many traders in Livermore's time too - plotted the prices and volumes against time on a chart. Jesse Livermore, however, did not use charts. He preferred to look at the numbers themselves.

(Chapter V) … “I should say that a chart helps those who can read it or rather who can assimilate what they read.  The average chart reader, however, is apt to become obsessed with the notion that the dips and peaks and primary and secondary movements are all there is to stock speculation.  If he pushes his confidence to its logical limit he is bound to go broke.”

Naturalgas ( username ) in icharts.in - His strategy...

Natural Gas Seasonality Chart..

The above chart represents the seasonality for Natural Gas Futures (NG) Continuous Contract for the past 19 years.

• Date range: January 1, 1991 to December 31, 2009
• Type: Commodity Futures – US
• Symbol: NG

Natural Gas Futures Continuous Contract Seasonality

Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of September 2 and a sell date of October 20, investors have benefited from a total return of 56.09% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 7 of those periods.
Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of April 29 and a sell date of May 11, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 26.69% with positive results in 9 of those periods.
The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was -72.36%.
**Results shown are compounded
Source:http://www.equityclock.com/charts/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart/

How seasonality is calculated..
These two will give a clear picutre

I alone have the ability to destroy my account”.

source: http://www.forex-goodies.com/storybesttrade.shtml

My Best Trade Ever

By: Anonymous

 

 To this day, I confront the same emotions. I have learned better control and have learned the signals of impending emotional responses.

I now anticipate, control them, and put them away. They have become my friends and my teachers.

Earlier in my trading experience I had spent 18 months, five hours a day, learning and trading various platforms and methods. I treated trading as a job from the first day, no mulligans permitted. I researched, read, struggled, made error after error, modified my trading plan and finally, after 18 months I felt ready to “go live” with real money. For the record, I was making between 5 and 15 trades per trading day and over the term had made an average of 256 pips per month with a 78% correct trade record. Not a bad record. I was ready. I gathered up my $10,000 and opened my live account with a reputable brokerage.

I still laugh at my naiveté, as the broker opened my account and automatically limited my leverage to 5:1; suggesting I may want to proceed slowly in this risky market. Following my arrogant and complaining email, the leverage was quickly increased to the then normal 100:1. I still have that email containing the staple marks and blood from my forehead.

My first live trade was a success, the plan worked well and closed the day with a 35 pip profit. Whew! The first live trade behind me, my methods confirmed; my wife and I celebrated my success and I completed my homework for next days trading plan. Confident, I slept with the angels knowing full well that my well-deserved success was just a few months away.

Enter now stage left, the Fifth Emotion of FEAR along with her cousins Self-Doubt and Conviction.

The research and homework from my first day had indicated a short trend. The charts showed a strong overhead resistance. Watching for a short opportunity, I opened my second live trade, SHORT a few pips below the prior days close. With strong resistance overhead and the first support level some forty pips below, my methods confirmed, my confidence high, I saw no urgency to set a stop loss, after-all I was right there; my finger “on the trigger”.

My entry method proved successful, the market moved 25 pips to the short side. I was elated, the wind was to my back! All the hard work and lonely trading hours were paying off. Success was right here, right now! The market had given me 25 pips, not quite my intended target level of 45 pips, but close; I held my short. My enthusiasm and joy were short lived as the market stalled and began a reverse that would gobble up my “profit” over the next five minutes. Finishing that meal, the market continued LONG, heading for the overhead resistance mark.

As the market approached my break-even point, FEAR crept into my mind, I set a stop loss LONG at the resistance price and re-evaluated my trade. My method, my charts, my friends in the chat-room, all indicated; stay SHORT. I reviewed my reasoning for taking the trade and became convinced that SHORT was the correct position. After-all, the market had failed the resistance level three times, the news was good, the trend was in line. I was right; I had the conviction. The market continued LONG, now by 20 pips.

The bull run continued, as the market approached my STOP-LOSS, FEAR and SHAME walked into the room. SHAME told me that a 45 pip loss was bad and would wipe out yesterdays profit; FEAR agreed calling CONVICTION who said that my trade strategy was correct; the market would certainly turn back SHORT before it broke the resistance. GREED arrived on his black horse. He suggested that I cancel my stop loss. FEAR AND SHAME both agreed, so did I.

My stop loss cancelled, FEAR and SHAME stood on my right side, happy that they could help.

It was dark and chilled in my trading room, quiet and alone I searched for my friend CONVICTION. He was there, leaning on SHAME’S shoulder and told me I was right.

Suddenly, from nowhere, lightning struck! Thunder roared! The quiet became a torrential storm as the bulls took over. Within two minutes, the market moved through the resistance and the market was LONG over 100 pips.

TERROR arrived in his black robe! CONVICTION and SHAME cowered in his mighty presence.

Reality set in as I realized I was down not just the 128 pips, but $1280 real dollars. Over 10% of my trading account had been destroyed in a single trade, in less than 5 minutes.

I evaluated the numbers and searched for a solution to my dilemma.

HOPE arrived, warm and promising. HOPE smiled, whispered gently in my ear, “if you average here, you can get out even on the retrace, remember the past”. TERROR chuckled under his breath and gave a high five to CONVICTION.

CONVICTION agreed that the retrace would take the price back within an acceptable level of loss. I decided to take the average. HOPE was such a help, so warm, so friendly, so reassuring.

My reality at this point was that I now had 2 lots at risk, (twenty percent of my trading account) averaged into a 64 pip loss, hoping for a recovery on the a retracement of a 128 pip move.

Thank god it was Friday and this move would be over soon, the pain would end. If I can just get out of the trade even, life will be fine. I know my mistake, I recognize my demons and I can move on.

As dawn broke, bringing with it the warmth of the sun, HOPE and I partied as the market began a reversal pattern; back towards home, towards warmth and security; back toward my dreams.

TERROR took a chair in the far corner of my trading room. Together HOPE, CONVICTION and I had succeeded. I was right, thanks to my long practiced methods, my analysis, my friends HOPE and CONVICTION. I was being rewarded. Success was again at hand.

Suddenly, without warning the market reversed again to the LONG side. HOPE dropped her drink. TERROR jumped from his chair with the speed of lightning, “a bull run” he shouted as the market moved another 92 pips to the LONG side. TERROR was exhilarated! He immediately telephoned DESPAIR and she came running.

This rampage of unchecked emotion continued through the session.

The comedy and the tragedy of compounding errors ended with one last average 257 pips above my initial short. I was now 3 lots SHORT; averaged to 125 pips down; in a reversing market; on a Friday.

TERROR and DESPAIR partied all weekend while my wife and I made the painful decision to take the loss.

The end result of this trade was; after one more average, the market did reverse. The trade cost me $3600, 36% of my account and I’m happy it happened when it did. It was the BEST TRADE I EVER MADE. And the market didn’t care!! The lessons learned from this trade were more valuable to my trading than the entire 18 months of advance preparation.

Now, hundreds of trades later, I revisit all my friends during my trades. They are my friends, they taught me, they are my mentors. But now I control them. I tell myself daily before I enter the market that “I alone have the ability to destroy my account”.